Stock Investing Philippines - PCOR out for GRAB

Petron was my favorite issue having a favorable outlook going forward.  The recent downward trend was seen as an opportunity to accumulate.  I always like Petron for being the biggest player in the Philippine oil industry and it's aggressive expansion to enhance growth.

What made the stock tumble in the last weeks?  In it's press release, "Petron Corporation Employees' Retirement Plan ("PCERP"), a shareholder of Petron Corporation (the "Company"), has agreed to sell 470,000,000 common shares of the Company at a price of P11.50 per share".  This was the culprit at the eyes of punters, but for investors this was a good chance for PCOR to strengthen it's cash position, make a strong base and expand for the long term.  

2013 was a good year for Petron, it posted 4.4bil net income 8 times higher than 2012 year on year performance.  The question whether this growth is sustainable remains to be optimistic given the track record of the management.  The $2bil refinery masterplan will boosts Petron's growth, I expect a big turn around in PCOR's financial strength in the next two years.  Petron is currently on the lead in the industry with 2,156 stations nationwide adding up the industrial supply commitment to various industrial sectors.

At a conservative point of view, I believe that PCOR will swing better at the end of 3rd quarter of 2014 with immediate target price of P14.  Grab PCOR now!

Stock Investing Philippines - PSEi Breakout

I was wrong to predict that PSEi will be down by at least 100 points before the Easter, in fact the market closed in the green territory bouyed by the heavy BUYS by hungry investors.  Following the week after the long holiday it's the Golden EGG that made the BULL swung to the new highs.

Philippine Composite Index 3-year performance

I have noted that banks led by MBT lifts the index, TEL also breached the 2,850 barrier and BPI breached 95 level.  These were the few of the best picks, casino stocks led by BLOOM shoot again, likewise MCP and RWM.  I continue to like property stocks like FLI, CPG, SMPH and ALI, the multi-billion expansion released by SMPH move the quiet investors from their bench and started to devour more the SMPH chunks.

Now, the Philippines has gained it's momentum and the BULL run will not be easing soon.  There may be a corrective swings but this will prepare the market to position for a better support level and to break a new highs.

Good news arose when Hongkong authorities lifted the Philippine travel ban.  I saw this as a new avenue of added investors confidence in the Philippine political and business environment dynamics.  Credit to Erap for this, he done a good job for the whole Philippines, thumbs up for him.

Kabul Trip - Part II

The Part 1 of my blog recounts how I have gone through the scary experience in Afghanistan immigration. Now, I am writing the second part as the epilogue.  The journey to this Afghan capital is over, we're now flying back to Dubai.  The same story, the immigration officer asked for money before allowing me to exit.  It was scary, but I felt brave enough, thanks to my big colleagues who were there.  The flight to Dubai was approximately 3 hours and 5 minutes.  The flight was delayed for an hour and the small departure lounge was overcrowded.   Don't expect to have a convenient stay at the airport lounge.

My work experience there however, was quite favorable compared to my journey.  I would like to focus on all the positive things that happened while I was in Kabul, the people I worked with, the friendship, and the brotherhood we built.  I was fascinated with the kindness of the locals and their humility. I thought Afghan people were so isolated and reserved as I recalled from a Readers Digest I read more than ten years ago.  In contrast, the people are jolly, outgoing, and funny.  The women showed some advance western cultural  adaptation compared to some other Muslim countries.

In downtown areas, new shops were evolving everywhere.  It looked like the business air has been reinstated and people have started gaining confidence to move on.  Even though there were always security alerts because of some militants who were fighting for the idealism resulting to deaths and disruptions, you could see the normalcy of life among locals.  People in all walks of life were seen on the streets, the malls, the jewelry shops, and the leather goods stores.  There were plenty of shops selling gemstones, I bought some although I was not sure if they were genuine.  Who knows, I might get lucky and get the real thing.

I surely miss my friends and my brothers and sisters in Depot 1.  My kabayans and the locals... Majed, who brought a pillow for me.  My first few nights made me restless because my pillow was too small which caused a neck pain.  Thank you Majed, for the pillow.  I thought of bringing it to Dubai, but the baggage allowance restricted me.  I left it to Rowena and told her to keep it until my return.  Mr. Asim, the MAN, the good match for Hazel.  I need to figure out how to tame Hazel about accepting my billings instead of rejecting them.  I need to find a recourse.  Will I succeed?  All I remembered was the perfume that serves as Asim's weapon, whenever he visits Depot 4, he is charismatic and charming.  He's a great gentleman in the making.  Good luck, my brother.  Yama, and Mustava, I miss my Bunso who was transferred to other department.  It's fun to watch him playing football on his laptop, stares at you, and closes his windows instantly.  He seems like an innocent young man.  Shabnam is always the  woman who portrays industry and hard-work.  Her smile made our days filled with joy.  The local Defac, where Asim and Mohamed used to buy croissant and local dough.  What a great workplace, it was like a home, a place where stress was out of your sanity.

How I wish I could travel back,  and wishing that the immigration officers on the desk will be kind enough to let visitors through freely.  Afghanistan has a lot to offer, the people, the culture, the ingenuity.  When will tourist flock this place remains a good question since the system is not yet in place for tourist to come and go comfortably .  However, I know I will be going back to Kabul to visit my friends and colleagues...now they are my family.

My next write up:  The Man Called Ahsim.

The Afghanistan Journey - Part I

I was hesitant to accept my assignment to Kabul, it took me three weeks to decide.  The first thing I did was go over the internet and read the latest happenings in the area.  The bombing news was all over; CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, and other foreign news agencies.  Reuter's, Fox, CCTV were reporting all suicide bombings, car explosion and so on.  Whew, all the news were on Taliban and every person interviewed shrugged about the incidents.

After accepting the Kabul assignment, I packed some of winter clothes, biscuits and chocolates.  I bought more sweets at the Dubai duty free just in case there were no place to buy, at least, I have stocks. While waiting for the boarding time, I went to the coffee shop and ordered two cups of hot chocolate which I shared with a fellow passenger.  An English and a Security official working in at a base in Kabul.  I was lucky then, he told me that he worked in Iraq for the last ten years and in Africa's war torn places.  The travel was three hours or more, I can't remember the exact travel time.  I sad at the window side of Safi Airways. The moment the plane took off, I couldn't help but wonder how Afghanistan look like.  Honestly, I was so nervous, I reached for my rosary and started to say the Sorrowful Mysteries.

I love adventure and discovering new things.  I love to travel and learn new cultures, but I don't want to get into trouble in any way.  I did not sleep in my flight, I kept staring at the mountains while the plane reached the 30,000 feet altitude.  The unending view of the mountains filled with snow was the only scene that I have remembered.   It was fantastic, so beautiful, a perfect scene.  I wish I brought my camera for some shots. While enjoying the view, the captain announced the we will be landing in Kabul airport in 15 minutes.  My heart started pounding, I called the flight attendant and ask for water.  I had an Inderal tablet with me to stabilize my nervousness.  At last we landed.

The Kabul airport was like a military base, there were many military planes and UN aircrafts.  It was different from the many airports that I have seen before.  We were fetched by a bus to the exit point, the Kabul immigration.  It was an old struc
ture and almost worn out, I walked slowly and join the queue of passengers towards the exit.  When I reached the immigration, I handed my passport to the officer for stamping.  I look around and see what other passengers were doing.  I was tensed and full  of fear.  Adding to my nervousness, the immigration officer winked his eyes, I smiled and  winked my eyes also.  Oh no, I did not understand what it means, it was a sign that they are asking for money.  Then he said "money, money, money"  I jsearched for my wallet and gave him $10 US dollar, he said "it's not enough", I began to get nervous again, I checked my wallet again and gave another AED10 equivalent to $4 US dollars that was the last note on my wallet, at last he stamped my passport.  Honestly, I was so scared.
I exit in the airport and examined the map that the admin staff gave me.  I walked toward parking C, it was a scary walk for almost a kilometer. Thanks, I found the man that was  sent by the transport, he handed my ID and lead me to the Nissan Armada car.  While inside the car,  I was looking around the road and the people on the streets, I can't help but think of snipers somewhere that could hit us at any moment.  My nervousness seems to be unending,  I was only relieved when I saw the army troops scattered on the streets. The security was so tight, there were checkpoints and police everywhere, and the soldiers were visible. Finally, I felt safe on that moment.  After less than an hour drive, we reach our destination.  It was Jalalabad.    Final Part in Kabul Part 2.