Stock Investing Philippines - PSE Bounce Back!

After the two day exodus of foreign funds, the PSEI bounced back Friday with index closed to 6,075 a 2.2% up from previous close.  Most of the blue chips recovered, noted that SM started to gain momentum also AC, GTCAP,  TEL, SMPH.  Foreign stock broker Credit Suisse liquidated 1.6 billion pesos of SM, noted that ATR Kim-Eng net buying was over 1 billion pesos.  The biggest dumped of SM shares came from Credit Suisse with net selling of 2.2 billion pesos over the five days trading.  Looking at how foreign fund behaved for the last five days, it seems that a see-saw was happening.  While others are liquidating others are positioning.  The good thing, not all foreign broker are scared.

I think the panicked selling gained temporary relief from the good news about the Philippine GDP growth of 7.5% for the second quarter.  The S&P, likewise, hailed the Philippines for its prudent fiscal management,while giving warning for Thailand and Indonesia's increasing debt to GDP and negative BoP's.   True, that the market was oversold but the uptrend was mitigated by the excellent performance of the Philippine economic managers.  I want to wait for Monday trading to see how the market react given the two day advance.  I sold my MBT at ex-date and it shows strength closing at 81.50, I would hope that my dividends would be sold at above 85 level on September 16.

I believe that corrective waves are still in place, open, so I want to be careful in playing.  Though, I have a diversified portfolio with little on mining.  My fund is sufficient to balance any corrections.  To those who are heavily invested in June, I think this time is the right time to lighten.  I do not see the index back at 7,500 level.  The market dipped into lows but rebounded on good news.  The US and EU markets closed in the red territory last Friday trading.  What would we expect from PSE on Monday?

In my personal view, I believe that making money in these times are still possible but no assured.  To say what to buy in particular is difficult.  I will continue to look for issues that are highly oversold and undervalued, one of them is CEB.  SM was clearly oversold but I am not yet convinced to enter at 600 level unless it will dipped back to 490-500.  If you ask if the correction has ended, I doubt it, with the crisis in Syria and Egypt investors may opt to play safe.  They may possibly divert their money to commodities such as oil, gold and silver.

Watch out!

Rome Escapade - Dream to Reality

In my childhood days, I always daydreamed.  I went out in the woods sitting in the shade of the trees, or climbing as high as I could and dreamed of places to travel.  I heard of Rome, the pope, Vatican, and the Roman empire.  I read stories in the history books that I borrowed from my classmate.  I loved reading the history of the world, the culture, the demography, and the architectures that signify the modernity of the medieval times.  I was always amazed by the greatness of human ingenuity.

that's not me,  illustration my childhood

I did more more reading about the Roman Empire and the Roman gods and goddesses.  Although, I was not astonished by what I learned, I was fascinated and puzzled.  I was in my high school then when I started to read the stories of Jesus Christ because of its connection to the Roman Empire.  It was interesting to fathom the Romans' power and how they control the world for hundreds or thousands of years, if I'm not mistaken.

The dream of travel to Rome never entered my mind during my early days.  My family lived in an average Filipino lifestyle.  Traveling has never been in our calendar, I can't remember planning to take a pleasure trip out of my little town.  However, reading has taken me beyond the borders of my physical environment.

There we go, in 2010 my wife and I visited Europe.  I made some research of what country should we visit first.  I considered Greece because of their Greek mythology taught in my literature classes, Germany because of Hitler, and maybe Spain because of the culture they imparted in the Philippine society-Catholicism.  At last, we decided to go for Rome, Italy.  We were both excited to see Vatican City, the seat of Christianity and Catholicism.  My wife who's a devoted Catholic was wowed with the idea of visiting the Vatican in Rome.  Now,  the dream of travel in my early childhood  has become a reality.

The travel to Italy had coincided with our wedding anniversary, September 29,  also the feast of my well admired saint, St. Francis of Assissi.  Excitement filled our trip, we booked the best flight we can to Rome through British Airways with four hour stop over in London Heathrow.  The waiting at Heathrow Airport seemed a long day.  I regret not to take the direct flight to Rome, but to do so would have doubled our airfare.

We arrived at Fiumicino airport in Rome at noon time.  I didn't feel exhausted (the usual feeling I felt during long travels) because of my excitement.  To set foot in Italy was truly an extraordinary experience.  It was like a dream standing at the immigration line and waiting by the carousel for our luggage.

Basilica di Santa Maria Magiore

inside the Basilica

After checking in at the hotel, we freshen up and began our tour.  Our first stop was at the hotel's restaurant and dine on some pizza.  We walked to the Basilica di Santa Maria Maggiore, the first famous spot that we set a foot on.  The Bassilica was astonishing, we we amazed by the ancient architectural designs.  The big church hall, now a tourist site was one of the must to see in Rome.  The altar and artifacts inside was a creation of the best architects in the medieval ages.  Thank heavens, this place was very near our hotel.


The next must see was the Colosseum,  the place where the gladiators fought to death.  This is one of the most famous structures.  In every step I made to this place, I couldn't help but think of the hardships and sufferings of the slaves who built this magnificent structure.  Though, the Colosseum has an entrance fee, we were fortunate enough that on September 27, if my memory was correct, it was Italy's tourism day.  We entered the place for FREE, saved forty euro, but spent it on dinner.  Every part of the Colosseum was amazing, a masterpiece or priceless human creation.  It was a remnant that reminisced the Roman empire.

Rome is a fascinating place, where evidence of early human power and capabilities left a blueprint.

More of Rome on the next write up....
   

Getting US Driver License

July 11, 2013, a day that will never be forgotten in the history of my life.  The day I passed the US driving test.  Finally, my dream to get a US identification card was granted, courtesy of the DMV.

Although I'm an experienced driver, it was a big challenge to pass the driving test in the US.  I was faced with tremendous adjustments on my driving skills and habits.  In addition, I wasn't familiar with some of the road signs, they were some of the things I needed to learn from the handbook.  Furthermore, Jeff, the examiner took me by surprise when I did my driving test.  It was my second time around with him so I was expecting the same route but whoa, to my surprise he directed me to a different route which made me feel uncomfortable.  Thank goodness, during the previous test, Jeff, who was a nice man was really helpful; he explained my mistakes clearly and told me what to avoid.  I took note of them carefully and wondered if I could pass the test next time.  This time however, the thought of passing was my great motivation to get my license.  And finally, Jeff told me, "Jerry, I think you made it this time."  Thanks to John and Louie.

Louie was my elder sister, she was supportive in my endeavors.  She was so patient to take me on the road to practice my driving, the American way, not my usual way.  I admit that having been a driver for more than 15 years made it more difficult for me to have a 360 degree turn-around on my driving habits.  To be honest, I was offended when she was correcting my way of driving, it took me some times to accept that I was in a different country, with different driving skills.  A total package of discipline was needed.

When I got home, everybody was dressed up!  Ow, they will probably treat me for a dinner, I thought.  John asked me for my choice of restaurant but Charlie knew the best.  Applebees!  It was a really touching family experience, the kids were very excited I passed the driving test and were so happy to go out and dine.  We drove to Applebees for a dinner treat, I am now a California driver.  As John said, "Welcome to the world of California drivers".

My niece after I passed the test (in Applebees)
I Like Her Smile!

Maybe people may say, it's a small thing, millions and millions have it.  No, in America, they have it, but how many millions in Asia have it?  Here in Dubai, a US driver's license is an easy getaway from the expensive and time consuming driving school and the long process of getting it.  Imagine spending a minimum of $2,000.00 for the tuition fees alone, then add the driving tests fees, etc, etc..  If you are not lucky, $5,000.00 wouldn't be impossible to burn just to get a UAE driver's license.

Sarah, "the little princess" made me write this story.  "Uncle Jerry," she said, "you need to write a story about it."  "As you wish", I replied.  When I landed in Dubai, I thought of getting it done but I wasn't in my best mood to write, so I kept it in my "to do" list until now.  Thanks to Sarah!

It's More Fun to be with the Parkinsons.  

Philippine Stocks Index - Correction Continues

Yesterday, I wrote about the bloodbath in the Philippine stocks index.  Truly, the panicked in the market worldwide spurs heavy selling.  The Philippines in no case could not be spared.  Today is the continuation of the bloodbath, all the blue chips were in red lead by SM which has deteriorated tremendously during the last 5 trading days.  What are the concerns behind SM's exodus?  Firstly, the MSCI Phils reduced the exposure to SM although fundamentally strong this was perceived by investors as threat to an all time downside.   Whatever the reactions for today would be viewed as pessimism in the stock market.  Commodities such as oil breach the $109 per dollar and the gold inched up to $1,420 above the resistance level.  Investor are going back to commodities to play safe.

The ASEAN is a big economy, although the weakness in Indonesia and Thailand was perceived to be an immediate entry to the recession point.  I don't think this case is the same with Philippines, analyst and economist projected the growth for 2nd quarter slows to 7.3-7.5, a hairline low with the 1st quarter of 7.8%.  Whoa! The 15% decline in the last five trading days was a big setback for  investors.  Panic is everywhere but this time will be best  for bargain.  Imagine SM reaching the high of 1,100 p/s omg... ouch... I can't buy that, that's too much, we are now entering the correction level to challenge the stocks into going back to  fair valuation, they are simply ovepriced at the index above 6,500.   Though, I am not praying that the index will dip into 4,000 which I viewed as recession point but still my money was set side to get the good catch.

Of course, the market is volatile, so watch for trends, I still stand not to lighten my selected issues, instead, I am diligently considering bottom price buying for issues like CEB, MEG, EDC, and MBT.  I like CEB for it's aggressive market expansion, they change the mechanics of play in the airline industry.  I would say that CEB was the innovator in the Philippine aviation.  The entry to the UAE this Octoberr posed a big challenge to big airlines such as Emirates, Cathay, Singapore and other foreign carrier with flights Manila-Dubai v.v.  The price war is now open, watch out for CEB, it's time to fly JUAN in the dessert and may enjoy the dessert Safari.

The Correction Wave - Philippine Stocks

The Philippine stock market faced the hardest wave of challenge in August, huge amount of foreign fund outflow was escalated due to the weakness in Asia.  Of course, the Philippine is not isolated, whatever the activities in the region, it's always contagious.  Since I have invested in mostly blue chips I did not intend to release neither lighten my position and cut loss.  I view this correction as healthy and I have been waiting for this since June.  But August was often categorized as ghost month so what do we expect.

The PSEi didn't hold the support of 6,100, today it drops by hefty 5%, and addition to the 6% drop last week after the flood.  Heavily traded SM (_5.75%), MBT (2.19%), ALI (7.47%), AC (7.89%), MCP (12.30%), GLO (9%) and more.  It's a bloody day, bleeding.

Looking on the bright side, I set aside 40% of my cash for this correction, it's been my strategy to be in healthy cash position at any given time. I learned how to tame  and control my emotions on stocks investing, considering my long term experience in the play.  Personally, I look forward for a support ground of 5,600-5,700 before I will enter again.  This will help balance my position and to get a lower cost average on my selected issues.  I continue to like EDC, AC, MBT, MEG, MPI, SMC, looking at the EDC chart, it shows strong support @ 5.50 and it's movement was flat for thee last 3 bloody days.  While AC and MEG suffered heavy sell off, I like to view it as windows for an opportunity.  Correction is good so far.

The index of 7400 was really a danger stage to enter, it was in June, some analyst are too optimistic viewing that PSEi may reach 10,000, I did not buy that proposition instead I lighten my position in June and stay watchful for the ghost month.  Tomorrow, I will surely buy MBT as dividends ex-date is on Aug. 29 (30% stock), if MBT will detriorate by 30% and trimmed down to 70 or below, fine, it's worth to wait.  Meg is another bet likewise with AC and MPI.  I like to see SM @ 400 level before I will enter.  Comparing SM and AC, which of the two will reap good harvest?